A review on multi-scale drought processes and prediction under global change

Abstract:

Drought is defined as a period of climate anomaly,which is mainly driven by natural climate variability.It has the characteristics of slow development,long duration and wide range.However,due to climate change,drought is occurring with increased frequency and changing characteristics.For example,a type of drought with rapid development,also known as flash drought,has occurred frequently in recent years.Moreover,human activities also affect the processes of drought by altering the terrestrial water cycle.Under global change,drought research has been extended from understanding climate dynamics of meteorological drought by considering ocean-land-atmosphere interaction to investigating the propagation from meteorological drought to agricultural and hydrological droughts with the influence of human activities.The latter will provide direct climate service for agricultural,water resources,forest sectors,but they also bring new challenges for understanding of drought predictability and developing drought forecasting methods,especially in the Anthropocene.In this paper,we review the advances in multi-scale drought processes and prediction,and discuss future directions.