长江中下游汛期旱涝的前期气象要素特征的统计分析及其应用

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRYNESS AND WETNESS DURING THE PERIOD PRIOR TO THE RAINY SEASON IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER YANGTZE RIVER REACHES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

摘要:

本文用1951～1980年资料,对影响长江中下游夏季旱涝的地面、高空气象要素作了比较全面的统计分析。根据相关系数和马哈拉诺比斯距离挑选预报因子。指出了影响汛期降水的关键气象要素、关键月和关键区。用逐步回归和逐步判别方法作夏季月降水量预报,经独立样本资料检验,效果较好。

Abstract:

Statistical analysis has been made of the surface and upper-air meteorological conditions responsible for the drought and flood in the middle-lower Yangtze River reaches during summer by using the 1950-1980 weather data. Predictors are chosen based on the correlation coefficient and Mahalanobis distance between predictors and Predictand, thus obtaining some key meteorological critcria, months and regions which may affect the precipitation during the rainy season. The use of stepwise multiple regression and discrimination techniques for rainfall prediction in summer has proven, after being tested with independent samples, to have good results.