天山北坡冬草场牧草产量预报模式

STUDY ON THE PREDICTING MODEL FOR WINTER GRASS YIELD AT THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

摘要:

本文利用天山北坡牧草产量资料分析气象条件对冬草场牧草产量形成的影响,确定牧草产量形成的关键期和关键因子;研究牧草产量和各气象要素的变化周期;综合考虑影响牧草产量的年末牲畜头数、气象条件,建立了牧草产量预报模式。

关键词:牧草产量;气候变化;畜牧气象;预报模式

Abstract:

The effects of meteorological conditions on the winter grassyield are studied using the grass yield date at the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains. Investigations are made of the key period andfactors for the grass yield formation and the cycle of the historicalseries of grass yield and meteorologi Gal elements. A predicting modelfor grass yield is established based on the comprehensive considerationof the number of livestock and the meteorological conditions which may affect the grass yield.

Key words:grass yield;climatic variation;livestock meteorology;predicting model