气象灾害经济损失估算与预测的经济计量模式

ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING OF ECONOMIC LOSSES IN METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS

摘要:

若将灾害经济损失作为内生变量,将各种气象影响因子作为外生变量,则可用经济计量模式估算与预测气象灾害经济损失,可识别经济计量模式的参数可用两段最小二乘(2SLS)估计法进行;为估计灾害经济损失,我们给出了一个数值例子。

Abstract:

The econometric model can be used to estimate and forecast the economic losses in meteorological disasters if they are regarded as endogenous variables and various meteorological influenential factors as exogenous variables. The parameters in the identifiable econometric model can be estimated by the 2SLS method. For estimating the economic losses in disasters we have given a numerical example.