全球变暖对我国亚热带北界的影响

EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON CHANGE IN NORTHERN LIMIT OF THE SUBTROPICAL ZONE OF CHINA

摘要:

根据历史气候暖期亚热带北界变迁和划分亚热带北界的热量指标,借助于文献(1)模拟CO₂倍增的全球平均温度状况,采用几种气候指标推估的经验公式,预测未来气候变暖背景下我国亚热带北界的位置。结果表明,CO₂倍增状况下,我国亚热带北界平均约北移3个纬度,其界线将变为西南向东北的波形走向。

Abstract:

Following the thermal index for defining the northern limit of the subtropical zone during the warming in history and the simulated global mean temperature rise in the presence of CO₂ doubling, the position of the limit is predicted for the furture in terms of the empirical expression formulated from a range of climatic indices. Results show that the northern limit will be shifted, on average, 3 degrees of latitude northward, with the SW-NE orientation.