气候变化对江苏省小麦生产的可能影响

POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT PRODUCTION IN JIANGSU

摘要:

根据国内外研究结果综合分析,得到CO₂倍增时江苏省温度、降水的变化值,初步确定了CO₂倍增时江苏省小麦生长季内的可能气候情景。分析未来CO₂倍增时对小麦作物的直接影响、间接影响及紫外辐射影响。具体估算了温度升高、降水增加、CO₂浓度上升、紫外辐射增强后江苏省小麦生育期不变和生育期缩短两种情景下的气候生产潜力,并由此分析了气候变暖对江苏省不同地区的利弊影响。结果表明：江北大部分地区小麦产量有所增加,江淮南部部分地区和苏南将减产。在此基础上用模糊聚类分析方法对CO₂倍增时江苏省小麦气候进行区划,并对未来江苏省调整种植制度,发展农业生产提出一些建议。

关键词:气候变化;CO₂倍增;气候生产潜力

Abstract:

A climate scenario of temperature and rainfall under doubled CO₂ was derived from synthetic studics of home and abroad for Jiangsu Province.Based on the scenario,effects on winter wheat production were studied of increased CO₂ and enhanced solar UV radiation and the crop climate productivity were estimated under two hypotheses of invariable and variable crop growing period respectively.Results showed that wheat output would rise in most part of the province to north of the Yangtze River and go down either in part of southern valley between the Huaihe River and the Yangtze River or in the south of the province.Furthermore,wheat growing was climatically regionalized over the province by fuzzy classification method and finally a number of suggestions were put forward for adjustment of planting system and development of agricultural production.

Key words:climate change;CO₂ doubling;climatic productivity