影响我国水稻产量的主要气象因子的研究

Primary meteorological factors affecting rice yields in China

摘要:

通过收集前人所作的全国各地区水稻产量气象预报模型,将所得到的资料按双季早稻、双季晚稻、单季稻进行分类,并提取预报因子。通过定量化处理,使用系统聚类分析方法,以预报方程中的影响因子为指标,讨论了各水稻分区(双季早稻分为4个区,双季晚稻分为2个区,单季稻分为9个区)水稻产量的主、次要影响因子和影响时期,为大范围水稻产量预报提供了科学依据。

关键词:水稻;产量;气象因子

Abstract:

Based on published rice yield-weather models for different cropping types in various areas of China,the obtained data fall into three classes according to double-harvest early rice,double-harvest late rice and single-harvest rice.Forecasting factors are extracted and quatita tively processed,from which rice is regionalized using clustering method as four zones for double-harvest early,two for double-harvest late and 9 for single-harvest.The primary and secondary affecting factors and their affecting perio ds are discussed,which may provide scientific basis for large-area rice field prediction.

Key words:rice;yield;meteorological factor