20世纪全球表面温度场序列的插补试验

An Interpolation Experiment for Global Surface Temperature Field Series of the 20th Century

摘要:

利用基于主分量典型相关分析的典型变量回归(CVR)插补模式,在综合分析Jones等5°×5°格点温度资料覆盖率的演变情况、缺测场与基本场温度距平相关结构、稳定性的基础上,确定合理的插补方案,对其陆面格点温度场进行插补延长试验,得到了1900～1998年连续、均一的全球月平均气温场序列。独立样本检验表明插补效果优良,总缺测场误差方差与原序列方差之比低于0.40。插补前后全球及纬向平均序列的演变特征基本一致,原Jones序列的线性增温率较重建序列高0.11℃/(100年),可能与原Jones场序列空间分布的不均一性有关。

关键词:典型回归;插补试验;全球表面温度场

Abstract:

In terms of the canonical variable regression(CVR)of principal component,an interpolation experiment is carried out based on integrated analysis of the change of Jones’ data coverage rate with time,correlation structure and stability between data missing and non data missing fields together with the reconstruction of continuous and homogeneous series of global monthly mean temperature field from 1900 to 1998.The independent sample test demonstrates that the ratio of error variance of data missing to variance of origin data is below 0.40.There are the rough agreements between the original and reconstructed series of global and zonal mean temperature.Linear warming rate of the former gives 0.11℃/(100a)higher than the latter,which may be the result of inhomogeneous distribution of Jones’ series.

Key words:canonical regression;interpolation experiment;global surface temperature field