近50a浙江省气候变化特征分析

Climate variation features over Zhejiang province in the last 50 years

摘要:

用1951～1999年资料详细研究了浙江省4个观测站的年、季、月降水与气温的气候变化特征。提出了用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)模拟方法对气象要素的长期变化进行统计检验。指出,气候变化也可以出现在气象要素的变率上,提出了用计算滑动均方差的方法来识别这种变率异常的方法

Abstract:

A detailed study is undertaken of climatic variation features of rainfall and temperature on a monthly,seasonal and annual basis at 4 stations in Zhejiang in terms of 1951~1999 data.Monte Carlo scheme is used to test the long term variation of the meteorological elements.Result shows that the climatic change can also occur in the elements.At last,a method is developed to identify the variability anomaly by means of the sliding mean square deviation.