气候平均状况的变化对气候极值出现概率的影响

The Influence of Mean Climate Change on Probability of Extreme Climate Events

摘要:

在概率统计理论的基础上,建立符合正态分布和Γ分布的气候要素分布模型来讨论极值事件对各个参数的敏感性,得出尺度参数对极端事件概率的影响力最大,进而研究了平均值或标准差的变化对极端事件的影响,为气候极值预测和气候模式设计提供了借鉴。

Abstract:

In this paper,probability models of climate variables have been established that belong to normal and Gamma distribution,used for discussion on sensitivity of extreme events to each parameter in the models.The influence of mean value and standard deviation on extreme events has also been investigated.We conclude that the scale parameter affects most probability of extreme events,and these results hopefully provide support for climatic extreme forecast and climatic model design.