西北太平洋台风季节预报的数值模拟

Simulation of seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific by using the WRF model

摘要:

利用中尺度气象模式WRF(weather research and forecasting)对2006年7月1日—9月30日的西北太平洋夏季台风进行了动力季节预报试验。结果表明:1)在对3个月以内的台风作动力季节预报试验时,WRF模式模拟的台风总个数与实况接近,模式模拟的总登陆台风数与实况相比偏小。从各月模拟情况看,台风总数与登陆数的模拟均与实况有差距。WRF模式对台风强度的模拟总体偏弱。2)WRF在模拟2006年7—9月台风以及平均高度场、水平风垂直切变时,7月与实况接近,随时间增长,与实况的差别明显增大。WRF模式具有一定的台风动力季节预报能力,但其预报时限有待探讨。

关键词:WRF模式;台风;季节预报

Abstract:

By using the WRF(weather research and forecasting) model,the paper simulated the seasonal tropical cyclone activity over western North Pacific from 1 July to 30 September 2006.Results show that:1) the simulated total number of Typhoons is close to that from Best-track data set.The simulated landfall TC number is less than that of real Typhoon number and it is the same for separate monthly landfall number.The simulated intensity of Typhoons is weaker than that from Best-track data set;2) the model shows better ability in reproducing Typhoon and the height and wind vertical shear fields in July,but the ability tends to be weaker as the model time increases.This suggests that the model can be used to simulate the feature of seasonal tropical cyclone activity but the time limit needs further exploration.

Key words:WRF model;tropical cyclone;seasonal simulation