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华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势
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公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006020);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)课题(2012CB417205);江苏省第四期"333工程"第三层次人才培养项目;江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)


Characteristics of extreme precipitation and its variation trend in the post-flood of South China
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    摘要:

    利用中国国家气象信息中心提供的华南89个代表站1969-2008年逐日降水资料,对华南后汛期(7-9月)极端降水时空演变特征进行研究。结果表明:多年平均总降水量、强降水量、降水频率、强降水频率以及暴雨频率与强降水量阈值空间分布一致,广东和广西的南部及福建西南部为大值区;强降水量、降水频率及暴雨频率很大程度影响着华南后汛期总降水量的空间分布。强降水量、强降水频率、暴雨频率对后汛期总降水量的时间变化有很好的指示意义。华南后汛期极端降水在1992-1993年发生一次明显的年代际转折,1993年以来各指标的均值(除降水频率外)和方差均显著增加,华南发生极端旱涝的情况增多。另外,转折前后两个时段的总降水量、降水频率均呈减小趋势,但减小显著的区域有一定差异。

    Abstract:

    Daily precipitation data of 89 stations in South China from 1969 to 2008,provided by the China National Meteorological Information Center,are used to investigate the spatial and temporal features of the extreme precipitation during the post-flood season (July-September) in South China.Results show that:1)The spatial distributions of the average annual total precipitation amount,heavy precipitation amount,precipitation frequency,heavy precipitation frequency and rainstorm frequency are basically in agreement with that of the extreme precipitation threshold during the post-flood season in South China,with larger values in the south of Guangdong and Guangxi,and the southwest of Fujian.Heavy precipitation amount,precipitation frequency and rainstorm frequency have a great influence on the spatial distribution of the total precipitation.Heavy precipitation amount,heavy precipitation frequency and rainstorm frequency have implications for the temporal variation of total precipitation.2)The regional averaged extreme precipitation of South China during the post-flood season shows an obvious interdecadal change around 1992,and the remarkable increase takes place for the mean values and variance of all the indices except for precipitation frequency,indicating that the drought and flood disasters have increased since 1993.In addition,the total precipitation and precipitation frequency decrease in the two stages(before 1992 and after 1993),with some differences for the notable decreasing regions.

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李丽平,许冠宇,成丽萍,章开美,柳艳菊,2012.华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,35(5):570-577. LI Li-ping, XU Guan-yu, CHEN Li-ping, ZHANG Kai-mei, LIU Yan-ju,2012. Characteristics of extreme precipitation and its variation trend in the post-flood of South China[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,35(5):570-577.

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  • 收稿日期:2012-03-21
  • 最后修改日期:2012-05-09

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