利用TMI资料估计西北太平洋热带气旋强度的客观方法

An objective method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity over Northwest Pacific using TRMM/TMI data

摘要:

利用2007—2009年热带降雨测量卫星(TRMM)微波成像仪(TMI)观测的亮温资料,建立一种西北太平洋热带气旋强度(Tropical Cyclone,TC)的估计模型,对2010年热带气旋进行独立估计试验,并对估计误差进行分析。结果表明:该模型对强度小于强台风TC的拟合效果较好,均方根误差约为5 m/s,平均绝对误差约为4 m/s;对强台风和超强台风TC的拟合误差较大,均方根误差分别为9.65和6.60 m/s,平均绝对误差分别为7.76和5.49 m/s;对强台风及以上强度的TC,模型的拟合误差在日(夜)间减小(增大),误差最小(大)值为6.00 m/s(11.96 m/s),说明估计值在日(夜)间偏大(小)。

Abstract:

Using the brightness temperature(TB) data of TRMM Microwave Imager(TMI) from 2007 to 2010,this paper establishes a method for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclone(TC) in Northwest Pacific,and tropical cyclones in 2010 are tested independently.Results show that the model fits well for those TCs,which are weaker than severe typhoon,with RMSE of about 5 m/s and mean absolute error of about 4 m/s.For theose TCs with strength between severe typhoon and super typhoon,the fitting error is bigger,with RMSEs of 9.65 and 6.60 m/s,and mean absolute error of 7.76 and 5.49 m/s,respectively.For theose TCs with intensity of strong typhoon and above,the fitting error in daytime(nighttime) decreases(increases),with minimum(maximum) error of 6 m/s(11.96 m/s),indicating that the estimate value is large(small) in daytime(nighttime).