1990—2019年全球气象水文灾害演变特征

Evolution characteristics of global meteorological and hydrological disasters from 1990 to 2019

摘要:

根据全球紧急灾害数据库（EM-DAT），利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验以及Pettitt、Buishand和SNHT突变检验等方法，分析了1990—2019年全球及中国气象水文灾害的趋势及突变特征。结果表明：1）近30 a全球洪水灾害和极端气温灾害的发生频次呈显著的增加趋势；全球洪水灾害年死亡人数呈显著的减少趋势，而风暴灾害的年经济损失存在显著的上升趋势。2）全球极端气温灾害和洪水灾害年发生频次均在1999年发生了突变；2000年以来极端气温灾害和洪水灾害平均发生频次约是前10 a（1990—1999年）的2倍。3）近30 a中国洪水灾害发生频次在1999年前后出现由少到多的转折，但年死亡人数却在1999年前后出现反向转折；相比于全球，近30 a中国风暴灾害及洪水灾害年死亡人数的下降趋势更显著；与全球类似，中国风暴灾害的年经济损失呈长期增加趋势，且增加趋势更显著，并于2012年发生了突变。

Abstract:

Based on the global Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), using Mann-Kendall trend test method and Pettitt, Buishand and SNHT abrupt change test methods, this paper analyzed the trend and abrupt change characteristics of global and Chinese meteorological and hydrological disasters from 1990 to 2019.Results show that:1) The frequencies of global flood disasters and extreme temperature disasters increase significantly in recent 30 years.Global annual death toll caused by flood disasters shows a significant decreasing trend, while global annual economic loss caused by storm disasters shows a significant increasing trend.2) The annual frequencies of global extreme temperature disasters and flood disasters change abruptly in 1999.Since 2000, the average frequency of extreme temperature disasters and flood disasters is about twice that of the first 10 years (1990-1999).3) In the past 30 years, the frequency of flood disasters in China has changed from less to more around 1999, but the annual death toll displays an opposite transition around 1999.Compared with the world, the annual death toll caused by storm disasters and flood disasters in China has a more significant decreasing trend in recent 30 years.Similar to the world, the annual economic loss caused by storm disasters in China shows a long-term increasing trend, but the increasing trend is more significant.The abrupt change of economic loss caused by storm disasters in China occurs in 2012.