河北保定百年均一化逐日气温序列的建立及其气候变化特征

Establishment of homogenized daily temperature series for Baoding in Hebei Province and its climate characteristics over century-long scale

摘要:

基于国家气象信息中心收集整理的保定气象站1919年以来逐日最高和最低气温观测数据,首先,通过数据质量控制剔除原始观测资料中因人工观测或记录、仪器故障及数字化人工录入等导致的错误数据；其次,基于天津百年均一化逐日气温数据,利用标准化序列法对质控后的原始观测数据进行延长插补；进而,通过两种途径建立的年和月尺度参考序列,利用惩罚最大t检验(PMT)和分位数匹配法(QM),修正了插补后保定气象站日最高和最低气温序列中因数据插补、迁站和仪器变更等造成的非均一性影响,由此建立了河北保定1912—2019年均一化最高和最低气温日值序列。分析表明,构建的年平均气温距平序列百年尺度的年代际和趋势变化特点与Berkeley Earth-monthly、CRUTS4.03和GHCNV3基本一致,并且与整个京津冀区域相比,很好地反映出保定地区城市快速发展所带来的增暖变化特点。另外,从百年极端温度变化来看,保定地区1912年以来年和季节极端温度也是呈明显的增暖变化,年和秋季极端最低气温(TNn)的增暖趋势分别为0.340℃/10a 、0.404℃/10a,对应的气温日较差(DTR)分别为-0.118℃/10a、-0.215℃/10a(均通过95%显著性检验)。

Abstract:

Based on the daily observations collected by National Meteorological Information Centre since 1919, the homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature series during the period of 1912-2019 were established for Baoding in Hebei Province. Firstly, the error data due to manual observation or recording, instrument malfunctions and digital inputs were removed by quality control. Then, the missing observations were interpolated by standardized series method using the homogenized daily temperature data in Tianjin over century-long scale. Lastly, several significant breakpoints caused by changes in interpolation, station relocation and instrument manufacturers were detected by penalized maximal t test (PMT) with annual and monthly reference series constructed by two means, and adjusted by Quantile Matching (QM) adjustment with daily reference series from Berkeley Earth-daily data. It was found that the characteristics of inter-annual, decadal and trend changes were consistent with those fromBerkeley Earth-monthly、CRUTS4.03 and GHCNV3. And the characteristics of warming change induced by the rapid urban development in Baoding region have well been reflected, simultaneously compared with the whole Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In addition, the warming change of annual and seasonal temperature extremes in Baoding have also increased significantly since 1912, the warming trends of annual and autumn lowest minimum temperature (TNn) were 0.340℃/10a and 0.404℃/10a (95% significance level), respectively, and the corresponding diurnal temperature range (DTR) are -0.118℃/10a and -0.215℃/10a (95% significance level).