智慧冬奥2022天气预报示范计划的实施与评估

Operation and evaluation of SMART2022-FDP

摘要:

主要介绍了“智慧冬奥2022天气预报示范计划”(简称FDP)的运行与评估结果。此次FDP是在我国首次针对中纬度山区0～10 d冬季天气预报展开的示范计划,国内气象部门内外共22家单位、近40个数值模式或客观预报系统参与了该计划。FDP实现了实时运行所需的多种源数据和多源数据产品的高效传输分发、监控、实时处理、综合集成显示。首次开展了次百米级客观预报、人工智能释用订正预报等新型技术在冬奥复杂山地赛场的实时示范应用,为冬奥气象中心和3个赛区预报团队提供了丰富多样和稳定可靠的高精度客观产品,有力支撑了高标准的冬奥气象服务保障。针对参与FDP产品的系统性检验评估发现,与模式系统原始预报相比,释用后的专项站点预报对平均风、阵风、温度、相对湿度等要素的预报误差明显减小。但是对于冬季复杂山地的降水、能见度预报,客观预报技术还有待进一步改进,而且站点解释应用效果不明显。此次FDP对风、温度、降水、能见度、相对湿度的最优预报检验指标(最小误差值),总体体现了目前国内在中纬度山区冬季天气客观预报的大致水平和现实能力,对于认识复杂山地冬季天气预报存在困难、提升高精度天气预报水平等具有极为重要的价值。

关键词:北京冬奥会;天气预报示范计划;FDP;检验评估

Abstract:

This paper presents the operation and evaluation outcomes of the “Sciences of Meteorology with Artificial-Intelligence in Research and Technology-Weather Forecast Demonstration Project for Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games,SMART2022-FDP” (referred to as FDP).The FDP marks the inaugural 0—10 d forecast demonstration project for winter weather in the mid-latitude mountains of China,involving 22 meteorological departments and institutions and with nearly 40 numerical models or objective forecasting systems participating.The FDP has effectively managed the transmission,distribution,monitoring,and real-time pre-processing of multi-source observations and output data products crucial for supporting real-time operations during the Games.Moreover,it has showcased real-time demonstration applications of innovative technologies such as sub-hundred-meter resolution forecasting and artificial intelligence-based forecasting in the complex mountainous competition venues.These efforts have resulted in the delivery of diverse and stable high-precision forecast products to the forecaster teams across the three Winter Olympics and Paralympics Divisions and various meteorological offices,thereby effectively supporting the provision of high-standard meteorological services for the games.A comprehensive evaluation of FDP products was conducted,revealing that specialized site post-processing forecasts exhibited significantly smaller forecast errors for meteorological elements such as average wind,gusts,temperature,and relative humidity compared to the original model forecasts.However,further improvements are needed in high-resolution numerical models and objective forecasting systems,particularly for precipitation and visibility forecasts.Additionally,the forecasting skill of site post-processing techniques was found to be less pronounced in the complex mountainous terrain during the winter.The optimal forecast verification indicators (minimum error values) for wind,temperature,precipitation,visibility,and relative humidity in FDP collectively underscore the existing capabilities of objective winter weather forecasting in mid-latitude,complex mountainous regions in China,offering valuable insights for addressing current challenges and enhancing high-resolution winter weather forecasts in such terrain.

Key words:Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games;Weather Forecast Demonstration Project;SMART2022-FDP;verification and evaluation