中高层大气环境变异及天气气候致灾效应——重大项目简介及最新进展

Variations in the middle and upper atmospheric environment and their impacts on weather and climate disasters:introduction to major project and latest progress

摘要:

中高层大气因其对天气气候的显著影响而被列为世界天气气候研究计划前沿科学研究领域。同时,作为航空到航天的过渡空间,中高层大气被视为国防安全的“高边疆”。然而,由于观测数据不足以及缺乏完备的中高层大气模式,我国对中高层大气环境变异及其天气气候致灾效应的认识还很薄弱。为了加深对中高层大气的认识,国家自然科学基金委资助了重大研究项目“中高层大气环境变异及天气气候致灾效应”,该项目旨在:1)发展中高层大气成分观测的新技术和方法,开展“天空地”一体化多要素协同观测,获取中高层大气的多时空尺度观测资料;2)研究跨大气层相互作用和多源扰动对中高层大气的影响,量化外部强迫因子和内部变率对中高层大气变异的影响及贡献;3)完善模式的中高层大气物理化学过程,发展中高层大气资料同化系统;4)揭示中高层大气环境变异对东亚极端天气气候的影响和机制,评估其致灾效应和风险。该研究将为防灾减灾、气候变化应对以及国防安全保障提供重要的科技支撑和决策依据。本文简要介绍了该项目的研究背景和内容、关键科学问题及最新研究进展。

Abstract:

The middle-upper atmosphere has been identified as a frontier scientific research area in the World Weather and Climate Research Program due to its significant impact on tropospheric weather and climate.Moreover,as a transitional space from aviation to space,it has been regarded as the new “high frontier” for national defense security.In China,due to insufficient observational data and a lack of comprehensive middle-upper atmospheric models,our understanding of variations in the middle-upper atmospheric environment and their weather/climate disaster effects is not sufficiently profound.To deepen our understanding of the mid-to-upper atmosphere,the major project “Variations in the middle and upper atmospheric environment and their impacts on weather and climate disasters” was granted by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.This project aims to conduct the following research:1)Develop new technologies and methods for observing the composition of the middle-upper atmosphere,carry out integrated “sky-to-ground” multi-element collaborative observations,and obtain multi-temporal and multi-spatial scale observations of the middle-upper atmosphere.2)Study the impact of cross-atmospheric layer interactions and multi-source disturbances on the middle-upper atmosphere,quantify the influences and contributions of external forcing factors and internal variability on the variations in the middle-upper atmosphere.3)Improve the physical and chemical processes of the middle-upper atmosphere in the model,and establish a data assimilation system for the middle-upper atmosphere.4)Investigate the impacts and mechanisms of variations in the middle-upper atmosphere on extreme weather and climate,particularly in East Asia,assess their disaster effects and risks.The expected results will provide new insights for extreme weather forecasting and early warning,and offering important technological support and decision-making basis for disaster prevention,mitigation,climate change response,and even national defense security.This article briefly introduces the research background,content,and key scientific issues of the project as well as recent main achievements of this project.