基于风险矩阵的重大活动气象风险评估

Meteorological Risk Assessment of Major Events Based on Risk Matrix

摘要:

针对气象因子对重大活动的影响和制约,从风险矩阵理论出发建立了以精细化气象要素分析为基础,考虑风险源(天气的危险性)、易损度(对活动的影响程度)两个方面的重大活动气象风险评估方法,并在国庆70周年庆祝活动气象保障工作中得到了应用与实践。通过对可能影响国庆70周年各项庆祝活动顺利举办的气象因子的调研分析和各类气象事件发生概率的统计及影响程度研判,评估了重要庆祝活动的气象风险等级,并绘制气象风险地图。国庆70周年庆祝活动期间主要气象风险(从高到低)依次为降水/阴雨、白天大风、雾—霾、夜晚大风、高温直晒、雷电、低温等。针对不同因素造成的风险,提出了风险控制措施与对策,为科学制定活动工作方案及活动顺利开展提供了重要参考,在重大活动气象保障工作中实现了由仅考虑高影响天气出现概率向基于影响的风险评估的转变,并取得了良好的服务效果。

Abstract:

We proposed a novel method to predict the meteorological risk for important events, and successfully applied it to the 70th anniversary celebration of the People"s Republic of China. The method based on fine meteorological factors analysis, considered risk resources(weather risk) and vulnerability(impact on events), so that efficient measures can be taken in advance to make sure the success of the events. A risk matrix method was used to perform the analysis and prediction. Meteorological risk levels were evaluated and risk maps were drawn of major celebration events based on the investigation and analysis of meteorological factors that may affected the successful holding of the celebration events and the occurrence ratio of different meteorological events. For the 70th anniversary celebration of the People"s Republic of China, we recognized the major weather risks (from high to low) were precipitation/overcast and rain, day force eight wind, frog-haze, night force eight wind, high temperature and direct sunlight, thunder and lightning, low temperature, etc.. Risk control measures and countermeasures were put forward to the risk caused by different meteorological factors, which provided important reference for the scientific formulation and implementation of safety work plan and the successful development of activities. In the meteorological support work of major activities, a major change has been realized from considering only the occurrence probability of high impact weather to risk assessment based on weather impact and we got a good service effect for the events.